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1001ch.com澳洲幸运5是官网彩票吗【金融期货周报】降准预期或松动

发布日期:2019-04-11

  如果我们把引导利率走向的两大预期因素分为基本面预期(经济增速和通胀)和降准预期,目前利率的大幅反弹或更多来自于基本面的环比转好预期(观察到长端利率反弹幅度较短端利率更强,且货币市场利率出现下行)。首先,由于春节分布的原因,部分3月宏观数据大概率将呈现环比反弹形态,期债的基本面支撑或暂时偏负面。其次,市场跌下来之后在4月是否还有一波做多的机会则需视降准政策能否回归,但是以目前情况来看4月降准预期似乎开始松动。由于MLF在4月中旬有大量到期叠加税期影响,市场多预计本月会有一轮降准政策实施。但是伴随着目前经济数据的环比改善(能否认定是经济提前复苏我们仍需更多的数据验证),猪周期的重启,以及央行对于降准的辟谣均到导致目前的放水预期似乎有些许的松动,短期内建议投资者以谨慎态度处之。进入到5-6月后,由于猪周期已经开启,叠加二季度CPI翘尾因素较高影响,需要关注宏观层面的小范围类滞胀现象的出现,对利率或也有偏强的负面影响

  由于3月PMI数据超预期,市场再次掀起经济提早复苏的预期,无论是A股市场或是期货市场均出现放量的情景。此外,再融资监管放宽(消息层面)以及股指期货进一步松绑的计划也都阶段性的提振了目前A股的市场情绪。短周期来说,由于春节分布的原因,部分3月宏观数据大概率将呈现环比反弹形态,对股指或存在基本面的偏强支撑。但是在乐观中我们仍需保持一丝谨慎,例如3月产业资本减持额大幅上升、美债利率曲线的倒挂等风险因素仍然存在于市场当中。中周期来说,1001ch.com澳洲幸运5是官网彩票吗只要没有出现超预期的基本面下行风险,股市的中期底部区域或已在2450点附近形成,中长期资金的多头配置机会或已现曙光

  1.国新办就《降低社会保险费率综合方案》情况举行吹风会:三个险种今年预计可减轻社保缴费负担3000多亿元

  2.国税总局:5月1日起调整开具中国税收居民身份证明有关事项,根据新修订的个税法相关规定,税收居民个人在境内居住时间由一年调整成183天

  3.据21世纪经济报道,中国华融“瘦身”之后,违约债券、地方债务成不良新来源。监管对华融鼓励的业务方向,一是对出现风险问题的金融机构进行托管;二是参与化解地方政府隐形债务,地方隐形债务化解将成为华融的不良资产的来源

  4.在失去高增长的日子中,房企面临巨大的资金压力,过去的高增长带来了沉重的负债,在2019-2021年房企将有1.8万亿元的债务到期,2019年到期债券相比2018年就翻了一倍

  5.潘功胜会见富时罗素全球首席执行官Waqas Samad一行,双方就中国债券市场对外开放及评估纳入富时罗素债券指数等有关问题交换了意见

  6.21世纪经济报道:目前监管层计划修改再融资政策,涉及减持要求、价格锁定、发行股本、投资者人数等。若顺利推出,这项重磅政策无疑能直接解决上市公司融资难核心问题。第一财经:再融资政策松绑的进度或没有预期当中那么快,证监会内部确实开会讨论过,但是规则修改不是证监会层面的问题,短时间预计很难有进展。澎湃新闻:投行人士称再融资政策将松绑传言内容基本属实,但公司层面并未收到监管层的意见或通知

  7.券商中国:监管层确实在酝酿修改再融资规则,不过和传言版本并未完全一致,传言中的内容多是市场呼吁已久的改革方向,目前没有成型的行业内部征求意见稿,也没有市场座谈,更没有监管定论,酝酿修改到规则落地还有一段时间,需等待相关规则正式出炉

  8.3月发行的新增专项债中,土储和棚改专项债占比降低,有望对基建形成更大支撑。专家预计,未来地方债发行“扎堆”情况料有所减缓,二季度发行量约1.4万亿元;伴随首次放开商业银行柜台市场发行,地方债发行渠道迎来扩容,有助于提升流动性

  9.国家金融与发展实验室副主任彭兴韵认为,完善债券违约处置机制,首先,要妥善处理已经发生的违约事件。其次,发挥中介机构的专业优势,积极参与违约债券处置方案的设计和执行。第三,积极引导不良资产处置机构参与违约债券处置。第四,建立和完善违约债券流转交易市场。第五,完善债券违约处置的相关法规制度

  10.据澎湃,中国部分债券正式纳入彭博巴克莱指数,为中国债券首次纳入国际主流债券指数。目前纳入的为国债和政策性银行债,接下来优先考虑的是企业债

  本周公开市场实现零回笼零投放。央行公告表示,目前银行体系流动性总量处于较高水平,可吸收政府债券发行缴款等因素的影响。下周(4月8日-12日)公开市场无逆回购到期,亦无MLF到期。机构普遍认为,4月资金面考验主要来源于企业纳税和MLF到期,中旬可能是全月流动性压力最大的时候

  如果我们把引导利率走向的两大预期因素分为基本面预期(经济增速和通胀)和降准预期,目前利率的大幅反弹或更多来自于基本面的环比转好预期(观察到长端利率反弹幅度较短端利率更强,且货币市场利率出现下行)。首先,由于春节分布的原因,部分3月宏观数据大概率将呈现环比反弹形态,期债的基本面支撑或暂时偏负面。其次,市场跌下来之后在4月是否还有一波做多的机会则需视降准政策能否回归,但是以目前情况来看4月降准预期似乎开始松动。由于MLF在4月中旬有大量到期叠加税期影响,市场多预计本月会有一轮降准政策实施。但是伴随着目前经济数据的环比改善(能否认定是经济提前复苏我们仍需更多的数据验证),猪周期的重启,以及央行对于降准的辟谣均到导致目前的放水预期似乎有些许的松动,短期内建议投资者以谨慎态度处之。进入到5-6月后,由于猪周期已经开启,叠加二季度CPI翘尾因素较高影响,需要关注宏观层面的小范围类滞胀现象的出现,对利率或也有偏强的负面影响

  由于3月PMI数据超预期,市场再次掀起经济提早复苏的预期,无论是A股市场或是期货市场均出现放量的情景。此外,再融资监管放宽(消息层面)以及股指期货进一步松绑的计划也都阶段性的提振了目前A股的市场情绪。短周期来说,由于春节分布的原因,部分3月宏观数据大概率将呈现环比反弹形态,对股指或存在基本面的偏强支撑。但是在乐观中我们仍需保持一丝谨慎,例如3月产业资本减持额大幅上升、美债利率曲线的倒挂等风险因素仍然存在于市场当中。中周期来说,只要没有出现超预期的基本面下行风险,股市的中期底部区域或已在2450点附近形成,中长期资金的多头配置机会或已现曙光

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  0},n.getGuid=function(){return r++},n.parseCallback=function(e){returnfunction==t.type(e)?e:!0===e?function(){location.reload()}:string==t.type(e)&&0===e.indexOf(http)?function(){location.href=e}:function(){}},n.setCookie=function(e,t,n){var r=new Date;n=void 0!==n?n:2,r.setTime(r.getTime()+864e5*n),document.cookie=e+=+encodeURIComponent(t)+;expires=+r.toGMTString()+;path=/},n.getCookie=function(e){var t=null,n=new RegExp((^ )+e+=([^;]*)(;$)),r=document.cookie.match(n);return r&&(t=decodeURIComponent(r[2])),t},n.throttle=function(e,t,n,r){var i,s,o,u=+(new Date),a=0,f=0,l=null,c=function(){f=u,e.apply(s,o)};return function(){u=+(new Date),s=this,o=arguments,i=u-(r?a:f)-t,clearTimeout(l),r?n?l=setTimeout(c,t):i=0?c():n&&(l=setTimeout(c,-i)),a=u}},n.debounce=function(e,t,r){return n.throttle(e,t,r,!0)},n.bind=function(e,n){if(e.bind&&e.bind===Function.prototype.bind)return e.bind(n);if(!t.isFunction(e))throw new TypeError;var r=[].slice.call(arguments,2),i=function(){var t=[].slice.apply(arguments);if(this instanceof i){var s=function(){};s.prototype=e.prototype;var o=new s;s.prototype=null;var u=e.apply(o,r.concat(t));return Object(u)===u?u:o}return e.apply(n,r.concat(t))};return i},n.initInputId=function(e){t(e).find(.quc-input:not([id])).each(function(e,r){var i=t(r),s=i.parent();if(s=LABEL==s[0].tagName?s:s.siblings(label),s.length){var o=quc_+i.attr(name)+_+n.getGuid();i.attr(id,o),s.attr(for,o)}})},n.selectText=function(e,n,r){var i=t(e),s=i.val().length;for(n=parseInt(n)0,r=parseInt(r)s;n).attr(src,o).hide();t(n.body).append(u),window[s]=function(){clearTimeout(a),delete r.object;var e=u[0].contentWindow,n=e.document,s=r.store=n.createElement(input);setTimeout(function(){s.addBehavior(#default#userData),n.body.appendChild(s),s.load(r.storeName),t.each(i.data,function(e,t){s.setAttribute(e,t)}),s.save(r.storeName)},30)};var a=setTimeout(function(){u.remove()},2e4)})}},set:function(e,t){this.object?this.object.set(e,t):(this.store.load(this.storeName),this.store.setAttribute(e,t),this.store.save(this.storeName))},get:function(e,t){if(this.object)return this.object.get(e,t);this.store.load(this.storeName);var n=this.store.getAttribute(e);return null!==n?n:t},remove:function(e){this.object?this.object.remove(e):this.store.removeAttribute(e)}},a={init:function(){this.data=this.data{}},set:function(e,t){this.data[e]=t},get:function(e,t){var n=this.data[e];return void 0!==n?n:t},remove:function(e){delete this.data[e]}},f=navigator.userAgent.toLowerCase(),l=f.match(/msie ([\d.]+)/),c=l&&l[1],h=6==c7==c;e.utils.storage=function(e){var t;switch(e){default:caselocal:try{t=window.localStorage?r:h?u:a}catch(e){t=a}break;casesession:try{t=window.sessionStorage?i:a}catch(e){t=a}break;casecookie:t=o()?s:a;break;casepage:t=a}return t.init&&t.init(),t},h&&u.init()}(QHPass),function(e){use strict;var t=e.$,n=立即登录,r=e.ERROR={REALNAME_EMPTY:{errno:204,errmsg:请输入您的真实姓名},REALNAME_INVALID:{errno:227,errmsg:请确认您输入的真实姓名是否有误},ACCOUNT_EMPTY:{errno:1030,errmsg:请输入360帐号},ACCOUNT_INVALID:{errno:1035,errmsg:请确认您的帐号输入是否有误},ACCOUNT_DUPLICATE:{errno:1037,errmsg:该帐号已经注册,+n},USERNAME_DUPLICATE:{errno:213,errmsg:用户名已经被使用,+n},USERNAME_EMPTY:{errno:215,errmsg:请输入用户名},USERNAME_INAPPROPRIATE:{errno:225,ermsg:用户名包含不适当内容},USERNAME_INVALID:{errno:199,errmsg:用户名应为2-14个字符,支持中英文、数字或_},USERNAME_NUMBER:{errno:200,errmsg:用户名不能全为数字},NICKNAME_EMPTY:{errno:205,errmsg:请输入昵称},NICKNAME_DUPLICATE:{errno:260,errmsg:昵称已经被使用},NICKNAME_INAPPROPRIATE:{errno:226,errmsg:昵称包含不适当内容},NICKNAME_NUMBER:{errno:262,errmsg:昵称不能全部是数字},NICKNAME_INVALID:{errno:15e3,errmsg:昵称应为2-14个字符,支持中英文、数字、_或.},EMAIL_EMPTY:{errno:203,errmsg:请输入邮箱},EMAIL_INVALID:{errno:1532,errmsg:邮箱格式有误},EMAIL_NOT_ACTIVATED:{errno:2e4},MOBILE_EMPTY:{errno:1107,errmsg:请输入手机号},MOBILE_INVALID:{errno:1100,errmsg:手机号格式有误},MOBILE_DUPLICATE:{errno:1106,errmsg:该手机号已经注册,+n},CAPTCHA_INVALID:{errno:78e3,errmsg:验证码错误请重新输入},CAPTCHA_INVALID_OLD:{errno:1670,errmsg:验证码错误请重新输入},CAPTCHA_EMPTY:{errno:78002,errmsg:请输入验证码},CAPTCHA_APPID_INVALID:{errno:1300,errmsg:验证码格式有误},SMS_TOKEN_EMPTY:{errno:1350,errmsg:请输入校验码},SMS_TOKEN_INCORRECT:{errno:1351,errmsg:校验码输入有误},PASSWORD_EMPTY:{errno:211,errmsg:请输入密码},PASSWORD_INVALID:{errno:1065,errmsg:密码长度应为6-20个字符},PASSWORD_LEVEL_LOW:{errno:54999,errmsg:密码安全级别过低},PASSWORD_WEAK:{errno:54999,errmsg:密码弱,有风险,请重新输入},PASSWORD_ORDERED:{errno:54999,errmsg:密码不能为连续字符},PASSWORD_CHAR_REPEAT:{errno:54999,errmsg:密码不能全为相同字符},PASSWORD_WRONG:{errno:220,errmsg:登录密码错误,请重新输入},PASSWORD_NOT_MATCH:{errno:1091,errmsg:两次密码输入不一致},PASSWORD_FULL_SHARP:{errno:54e3,errmsg:密码不能包含中文字符,请重新设置},IDENTIFY_EXPIRE:{errno:153e3},NOT_SIGNED_IN:{errno:1501,errmsg:用户未登陆},UNKNOWN_ERROR:{errno:999999,errmsg:未知错误},SUCCESS:{errno:0,errmsg:操作成功},TIME_OUT:{errno:1,errmsg:网络超时}},i=e.utils=e.utils{},s={1105:该手机号未注册360帐号,1402:手机号当天发送短信次数超限,201:该邮箱已经注册,+n,3e4:该手机号已经注册,请直接用手机号登录,30007:该手机号已经注册,请直接用手机号登录,65002:该帐号未开启短信登录功能,立即开启,65001:该帐号只能通过短信登录,关闭此功能,221:帐号被封禁,点此联系客服,78001:提交过于频



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